Why do Argentina thrive in New Zealand? It’s simple All Blacks complacency

The odds are stacked against Argentina winning for a fourth time in their history against New Zealand on Saturday, even though last weekend’s 38-30 victory in Wellington was no fluke — never mind that it came in the capital city, where the All Blacks have failed to win now for five years.
On Saturday, Scott Robertson’s team will stride on to the pitch at Eden Park, Auckland, their home from home, with 47 wins, two draws and no defeats since France triumphed there to seal a series victory way back in 1994. These may be early, vulnerable days in Robertson’s reign but the prospect of defeat is incomprehensible. This despite Argentina having a better recent record in New Zealand than either South Africa or Australia.
The Springboks haven’t prevailed in the land of the long white cloud since 2018. Thereafter, you have to go back to 2009 for a win on All-Black soil. Australia have an even more sorry tale to tell. They have tasted success at home but only failure in New Zealand since 2001, when the core of the 1999 World Cup-winning team conquered the other side of the Tasman Sea.
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What a contrast with Argentina, whose three wins against New Zealand include successes in Christchurch and Wellington in 2022 and 2024 respectively. The Springboks are the All Blacks’ greatest rugby rivals and Australia their nearest but not necessarily dearest of neighbours, whereas Argentina are the fourth team in the Rugby Championship — the newcomers.
Consider also that this Argentina side lost to a third-string France team before a narrow second-Test success early this summer and it’s easy to see how some complacency set in with the All Blacks. At the highest sporting levels you have only to be a few per cent off your best — mentally even more than physically — and expected success is reduced to the rubble of inevitable failure.
Last week Argentina benefited from Kiwi complacency. Fresh from a 44-6 semi-final demolition of the Pumas at the World Cup less than a year ago, New Zealand expected to win too much and feared defeat too little.
Complacency was perhaps behind the 2022 defeat too. This was the Ian Foster regime in one of its darkest hours. His team had just lost a two-Test home series to Ireland — unthinkable in New Zealand — and then a third game in succession, against South Africa. They roared back into life with a magnificent performance in Johannesburg and it seemed all was well again. A fortnight later they were brought back down to earth by Argentina.
When you have, like New Zealand, something around a 75 per cent win rate, it must be hard to avoid complacency. Before the England series this summer, Sevu Reece, the All Blacks wing who has been dropped for the Argentina rematch, was telling the rugby world how little he knew of the England wings; just as Brodie Retallick once claimed not to know any of the England team. He ended up confusing Courtney Lawes with Michael Laws, a New Zealand politician. Ignorance is anything but bliss. Complacency is an unseen threat to the healthiest of teams.
The repeat pattern with New Zealand immediately after any shock defeat is that they respond in the best possible way — leaving a massively sloppy mental approach as the only possible explanation for the initial loss. In Sydney in 2020, Argentina recorded their first win against New Zealand. One week later, a 15-25 loss was converted into a 38-0 New Zealand win in Newcastle, New South Wales. In 2022, the Pumas’ undeniably historic 25-18 first triumph on Kiwi soil was followed by another vengeful 55-3 hammering in Hamilton.
The combination of the more stretched resources of the South Americans struggling to find inspiration in consecutive weeks, allied with New Zealand being stunned into action, creates massive turnarounds in Test scoreboards between not only the All Blacks and Argentina but Australia too.
Australia have a few home wins this century but the All Blacks’ regular rebounds must make the Wallabies wonder whether the victories are worth the ensuing pain. In 2008, a 15-point Australian win turned into a 29-point loss at Eden Park. Six years later, a draw in Australia metamorphosed into a 51-20 New Zealand win in Auckland. The following year, Australia prevailed by eight points at home before losing by 28 at Eden Park. The largest scoreboard flip-flop of them all occurred in 2019; a 21-point hammering of the Kiwis in Perth transformed into a 36-0 whitewash at Eden Park. There’s an identical pattern.
The 2017 British & Irish Lions series-sharing 15-15 draw in the third and final Test at Eden Park should stand high among their achievements. Warren Gatland’s men won the second Test in New Zealand’s very own House of Pain in Wellington and responded to the traditional counterblast with a bravura performance to deprive the world champions of an expected series win at their Auckland fortress.
This was the most underestimated Lions 80 minutes of them all. If Argentina finish within a score on Saturday it will be heroic. If they go one point better than the 2017 Lions, against a fully prepared New Zealand team, in a stadium where the All Blacks have not lost for 30 years, the day should go down as Test-match rugby’s greatest shock.
Saturday, kick-off 8.05amTV Sky Sports Main Event